Friday 17th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Even though equities fell form their record highs of yesterday, that wasn’t until after the Dow passed the 40k mark for the first time ever. JBWere’s Sally Auld is surprised at the confidence in US equity markets, particularly as data is showing more signs of softness and Fed speakers continue to talk about waiting longer for cuts. JPMorgan’s James Dimon also expressed concerns...

Thursday 16th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US CPI came in broadly as expected overnight, but the markets reacted anyway. Perhaps they feared another upside surprise. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says the slowdown in retail numbers also raised expectations slightly that the Fed will squeeze in two rate cuts before the year is out. But what about the RBA? The wages data yesterday was helpful, but not enough to move the goal posts....

Wednesday 15th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets are waiting for US CPI later today. There was some market reaction to he producer price numbers from the US, which NAB’s Gavin Friend described as sticker shock. The core number for April was higher than expected, but markets quickly retraced steps when the March number was revised down. In short, not such a big move after all. UK employment numbers were a little...

Tuesday 14th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB It is of course, budget day in Australia today. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says government subsidies will help bring headline inflation down, but the rise in household spending could delay the slowdown in the underlying inflation rate. The speed at which inflation will fall continues to be the question on everyone’s lips around the world. For the US the PPI (producer prices index)...

Monday 13th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were a few signs that inflation globally might be taking longer to fall. Canada’s surprise employment numbers pushed yields higher, and the UKs CPI was an upside surprise on Friday as well. Consumer inflation expectations in the US also came in higher. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says al these factors could push back rate cuts a little further. And what about locally? What is...

Friday 10th May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Productivity gains have been slipping, not just in Australia, but around the world. The problem locally is accentuated by the shift away from a heavily automated resources sector, where significant value is added per employee. If we can’t manage the same level of efficiency as we switch to more labour-intensive output, particularly in...

Friday 10th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t much market reaction as the Bank of England kept rates on hold but said what many already knew, that they will have to cut rates in the coming months. The ECB seems wedded to the idea of a June cut, with the accounts of their last meeting out today, but there is some speculation about how quickly they will follow through. Canada’s unemployment is expected to tick...

Thursday 9th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There wasn’t any tier one data overnight to give markets any clear direction. You could say there was an air of subduedness. The Riksbank cut rates, as suggested yesterday, but one ECB member is concerned that going too early, against a Fed that keeps rates on hold longer, could drive the Euro lower and add to inflation concerns. NAB’s Gavin Friend says the problem emerges after...

Wednesday 8th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB NAB is still expecting that the RBA’s next move will be a cut in November, because yesterday’s meeting did raise the possibility of a rate hike if inflation remains too persistent. NAB’s Skye Masters says the market reaction was tame because none of this came as a surprise. We’ve known that inflation was taking time to come down, and the revisions to the RBA’s inflation...

Tuesday 7th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The RBA meets today and is expected to keep rates on hold. They also release their revised inflation forecasts in the latest Statement of Monetary Policy. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says there will be some market sensitivity around these numbers, as well as the press conference, although there’s a firm expectation that rates won’t budge today. There is one central bank that might cut...

Monday 6th May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The non-farm payrolls in the US came in lower than expected, with a rise in the unemployment rate. NAAB’s Ken Crompton says we shouldn’t get too excited by the unemployment rate because it’s a small move when you take it to the second decimal place. The Services ISM was also weaker, falling into contraction territory. The impact has been to bring forward rate cut expectations a...

Friday 3rd May 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. They dominated the global share market last year and many have enjoyed tremendous growth so far this year, with NVIDIA as the clear outperformer. Whilst there’s a been a bit of an adjustment lately, Katie Stockton, founder of Fairlead Strategies in Connecticut, says there’s still plenty of momentum and their own analysis points to...

Friday 3rd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US productivity has slipped quite markedly in Q1, that’s pushed up labour costs – is that something to worry about? Phil puts the question to NAB’s Gavin Friend, who says markets are still responding to yesterday’s dovish slant from the Fed. Non-farm payrolls will be watched keenly tonight, along with US Services PMI. Locally  Australia’s home loans data is out today. Phil and...

Thursday 2nd May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed kept rates on hold for the sixth meeting in a row this morning, warning that there had ben a lack of further progress towards their 2% inflation target. NAB’s Ray Attrill says it didn’t really change market pricing for a cut, with the first fully priced move still looking like December. But there was a fair bit discussed during the press conference, from the terminal...

Wednesday 1st May 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB A month-end a day out from the Fed decision in the midst of some earning results for some heavyweight stocks, its hardly surprising we saw a lot of volatility in bonds, currencies and equities in this session. NAB’s Skye Masters says yields pushed higher on the release of US employment costs, which were higher than expected, contribute g to more of a push back in the timing of...

Tuesday 30th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB German inflation numbers overnight were stickier than expected, presenting a challenge for the ECB, one of the few central banks that has been talking-up the mid-term rate cuts. Phil asks NAB’s Rodrigo Catril if this puts June cut in jeopardy, or the expected follow-up cuts later in the year. Elsewhere we saw a sharp reversal in the value of the Yen. Has it been driven by...

Monday 29th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US March PCE Deflator number on Friday was broadly in line with consensus, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says upward revisions to the January and February numbers show inflation remains persistent which delays further the timing of cuts by the Fed. There weren’t big moves in bond yields but that could all change with a busy week for US data, including ISMs and Payrolls,...

Friday 26th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Australia is well placed in terms of natural resources for the green energy transition. We are already one of the world’s largest exporters of lithium, in-demand for the production of batteries, primarily for electric vehicles. Alison Reeve, Energy and Climate Deputy Program Director at the Grattan Institute, joins Phil to talk about...

Wednesday 24th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Is stagflation on the horizon for America? It’s a question Phil puts to NAB’s Rodrigo Catril after we saw slower growth and rising prices in data out on Wednesday. Could slow growth impact the euphoria around the Magnificent Seven? Well not just yet, as Microsoft and Alphabet have both enjoyed double digit percentage growth in after-hours prices o the back of strong earnings...

Wednesday 24th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB PMIs showed some strength in Europe, but were generally weaker than expected in the US. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says it’s the US numbers that generated a market reaction because it adds to the leading indicators that challenge the notion of US exceptionalism and that the gap between the US and Europe is closing. Today the quarterly CPI print for Australia is unlikely to move...

Tuesday 23rd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The force of AI is strong it seems. It’s certainly pushing equities back up again in the US ahead of earnings results for several of the Magnificent Seven later this week. Meanwhile, bond markets and currencies have calmed down, although the pound is weaker on expectations for an earlier cut by the Bank of England. Today PMIs for the UK, US and Europe will give a clearer...

Monday 22nd April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The magnificent seven have been taking a hit in the US share market. NAB’s Ray Attrill says the forward-guidance for Netflix wasn’t received well, and four more of th large tech stocks report this week. Meanwhile, there were further signals of delays in Fed rate cuts, whilst the impetus in Canada, Europe and the UK seems to be, if anything, moving the other way. But, assuming...

Friday 19th April 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. This week we saw the divide between European despondency and American exceptionalism widen a little further. The IMF upgraded their US growth forecasts, whilst nudging Europe’s a little lower. But it’s not all doom and gloom. Melanie de Bono, senior Europe economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics in London, says the economy is already...

Friday 19th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Fed speakers are increasingly pushing expectations for cuts further back in the year. John Williams even suggested he’d entertain the idea of a rate rise if it was warranted. That’s coming from one of the more dovish members of the FOMC says NAB’s Ken Crompton. Ken also takes us through yesterday’s employment numbers for Australia and looks ahead to Japan’s CPI and UK retail...

Thursday 18th April 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets were mixed overnight. The dollar lost a bit of ground, AUD and NZD outperformed, bond yields fell, while US equities have continued to struggle. The only geopolitics to speak of came from Joe Biden talking upping  the need to impose hefty tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminium imports. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it as a bit of electioneering and pacifying the US steel...