Friday 22nd November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. The private credit market is growing in volume with no signs of abating. Brad Calleja, Executive Corporate Finance at NAB, says its difficult to put a precise figure on the size of the space because not all deals are visible, but it’s estimated globally at between $2 and $3 trillion. So, what is it and why is it growing so...

Friday 22nd November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Are NVIDIA investors a bit like Oliver Twist? They want more. That’s the take of NAB’s Skye Masters, who joins Phil on the Morning Call. The data was all second tier and none of it changed market expectations around the Fed’s path of rate cuts. US jobless claims were down, but continued claims were up, suggesting employers are letting less people go, but at the same time are...

Thursday 21st November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There’s no been much in the way of data to give markets any direction. Ahead of the NVIDIA results equities were trading lower, with the US dollar up slightly, and no big moves in oil. Phil asks NAB’s Tapas Strickland why there wasn’t more of aa reaction to events in Eastern Europe, with Ukraine firing US and UK supplied missiles into Russian territory, and the US, Italy,...

Wednesday 20th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There as a certain amount of nervousness as Ukraine fired into Russian territory overnight and Russia revised its so-called Nuclear Doctrine, which lowers the requirements for a nuclear strike on a foreign power. But NAB’s Ray Attrill says the risk sentiment was short-lived, and markets are now focusing back on earnings results (NVIDIA tomorrow) and central bank...

Tuesday 19th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Oil increased in price today. At first glance you might assume this was a response to the news that President Biden has authorised the use of US weapons to be fired by Ukraine into Russian territory. But NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says prices really rose in response to the news that the CEO of Liberty Energy - a company focused on fossil fuels - has been nominated as head of the...

Monday 18th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Just after Friday’s podcast Jerome Powell said the Fed was in no hurry to cut rates, raising doubts as to whether a cut in December was going to happen. Market pricing fell, to the point where it’s now closer to a 50:50 chance. NAB’s Taylor Nugent talks through what was said, and the mixed US data from Friday, that included strong retail sales and an (unbelievably) strong...

Friday 15th November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. How different will the world be after another term of Trump as US President? Will he grow the size of the US economy, or will his policies simply add to domestic inflation, meaning higher interest rates for longer. Will he start a global trade war, forcing companies to replicate their production facilities in each local...

Friday 15th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Australian unemployment numbers just don’t want to move. JBWere’s Sally Auld explains why NAB now expects a cut from the RBA to be delayed beyond the first quarter of 2025 and might not even happen next year at all. It’ll be interesting to hear the spin from Fed speakers in the US now, after lower-than-expected job claims and a higher than anticipated PPI. After a December...

Thursday 14th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to push higher, with the AUD one of the main casualties. The PBoC is also clearly concerned about the weakness on the CNY. It’s not just the dollar that is staying high - US inflation is taking a while to come down. The CPI number overnight was as expected, though markets seem to be reacting as though they are relieved it wasn’t higher. As a result,...

Wednesday 13th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB US markets continue to embrace the optimism of a pro-growth Trump presidency, even as equities back off their highs a little in this session. The US dollar, meanwhile, continues to strengthen and the latest Bank of America Global Fund Managers Survey shows investors exposure to equities has hit the highest level since 2013. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil today to talk...

Tuesday 12th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The US dollar continues to rise, mid-cap equities are doing well, Bitcoin is pushing higher, so are Tesla shares. With little in the way of new data releases, and the US bond market closed for Veterans Day, most market moves relate to expectations on what Trump might do in his second Presidency. Phil asks if the moves are rational. It’s too early to be rational, says NAB’s...

Monday11th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets might be waiting for signs of the speed and magnitude of Trump’s expected import tariffs, but NAB’s Tapas Strickland says businesses are already indicating their response - building up inventories in the US whilst they determine as they consider whether to move more production to the US. China’s stimulus underwhelmed on Friday, focusing on reducing local government...

Friday 8th November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Australia faces a rising tide of homelessness as rents push higher, out of the reach of many lower income earners. According to Rebecca Pinkstone, chief executive of Homes NSW, in her state alone there are 57,000 people on the register, looking for a home. Rents in Sydney and surrounds are often considerably more than a state...

Friday 8th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB The Fed cut rates as expected today by 25bp, after the big 50bp cut last time. But there’s one more meeting scheduled before Christmas and JBWere’s Sally Auld says markets are evenly split as to whether that’ll mean another cut this year. The message from the Fed today was that the risks are balanced when it comes to achieving their employment and inflation goals, but what...

Thursday 7th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There is a Trump trade after all, and we just saw it. The US dollar rising, bond yields in the US pushing higher, US equities higher at the expense of equity markets elsewhere. NAB’s Gavin Friend joins Phil to talk through the market response to the US Presidential election news. They discuss how it’s hit Europe and how it could prompt a domestic focus on China’s stimulus,...

Wednesday 6th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Polls start closing in the next few hours. NAB’s Taylor Nugent says Virginia, which closes late morning Australia time, was called by Associated Press within 36 minutes last time. So, we could start to get a picture of how each candidate is faring by lunchtime today, even if the final outcome could take time – possibly weeks. Something else that could take longer than...

Tuesday 5th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Markets have responded to a poll over the weekend which showed a swing in favour of Kamala Harris in Iowa. It was driven, apparently, by more older women expressing a preference. NAB’s Tapas Strickland says Iowa isn’t normally considered a swing state, so there is the question about whether this could be replicated across the country. But we haven’t seen a massive unwinding...

Monday 4th November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Mid-morning Wednesday Australia time the polls close in the US and soon after, hopefully, the world will know the choice made from two very different political and economic agendas. NAB’s Ray Attrill says this uncertainty is showing through in the data. It’s been blamed for the fall in the US manufacturing index on Friday, for example. It perhaps also explains why there was a...

Friday 1st November 2024 Please note this communication is not a research report and has not been prepared by NAB Research analysts. Read the full disclaimer here. Australian house prices have defied logic. Core Logic’s Eliza Owen says when interest rates rise you should see asset prices come down. In theory. Yet the last rate rise, in November last year, coincided with a fresh record high in home values. Now homes in NSW have increased in value for 20 consecutive months. Until now. Today’s...

Friday 1st November 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Some big market moves overnight, with sharp falls in US equities.  Markets are clearly not impressed with the forecasts that came with the strong earnings results this week. In the UK bond yields are markedly higher, particularly at the front end. NAB’s Skye Masters says there are concerns that the extra spending could boost inflation.  The focus now is on tonight’s US jobs...

Thursday 31st October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB There were a few reasons for central banks to be cautious about the speed of the cuts to interest rates. Europe is growing a little faster than expected, whilst German inflation kicked back up a little. Whilst US GDP is weaker it is being held up by strong levels of consumption. Australia’s CPI didn’t surprise, so there’s no reason for the FRBA to change the expected path...

Wednesday 30th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB Something for everyone today. On the jobs front US openings are down, whilst unemployment in Japan fell. On growth we have the US GDP number today, after the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now forecast for Q3 was revised down.  Europe’s GDP numbers are released today along with CPI for various European countries, and for the Eurozone as a whole, today and tomorrow. More significantly,...

Tuesday 29th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB As suggested yesterday oil prices fell sharply in this session as markets breathed a collective sigh of relief that the Middle East war didn’t escalate further after the Israeli attack on Iran. NAB’s Tapas Strickland joins Phil to explain the continued rise in bond yields. Could a fear of inflation reigniting under a Trump presidency be part of the pricing? Kamala Harris...

Monday 28th October 2024 NAB Markets Research Disclaimer  Financial Services Guide | Information on our services - NAB After that leap in margins for Tesla last week, all eyes will be on a plethora of big-tech earnings this week. NAB’s Rodrigo Catril says it could be a volatile week, with the VIX index pushing over 20 on Friday. It’s been a busy weekend with the Japanese election unlikely to bring an outright majority. What does that mean for the BoJ? China released data showing even more of...