Mental Models: Recalibrate Biases to Cope with Pandemic: #48 Biases investors need to be aware of include ILLUSIONS OF INVULNERABILITY and ILLUSIONS OF CONTROL. Due to years of investing success investors feel invulnerable and are making decisions from their mental model which needs recalibration, along with the bias Illusion of Control. For more on this topic explore FIVE STAR reviewed book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE There will continue to be an evolution to...

Motivations that drive us are our basic human values, which are discussed in detail in this episode from investing and psychological perspective. Our mental models of others behavior and our own can helps us to predict steps management might take with a company that we are accessing to purchase their stock. The pie chart of basic human values theory by Shalom Schwartz, will help you navigate Episode #47: "Mental Models: Motivations That Drive You". See here on Mental Models Podcast website:...

Do you have the will power to keep from buying that stock too early? Humans need the will power to delay gratification - how do we get it? Discipline is important to success. Walter Mischel’s, research which is commonly called the “Marshmallow Test” with preschoolers and self-control provides great insight. Video of Marshmallow Experiment https://youtu.be/Rwxf1BTyKz4. Although, discipline is the key, such as waiting to buy or sell that stock at the perfect moment. Some of the toddlers in...

The keys to flexible thinking come from exploring the different solutions to a problem vs. exploiting the rewards, resulting in perseveration behavior. In this episode we explore the ‘set effect’ which is linked to problem solving. An example of successful flexible thinking and over coming the ‘set effect’ is when Warren Buffet realized that investing had changed and it was time to find a new approach and move away from Net-Nets, which he had learned from his mentor Benjamin Graham....

In this episode we consider how our memory systems are organized and what we can do to help become better at remembering in a variety of areas of our lives. We consider memory from a multiple memory systems approach focusing on working memory- our short-term store. Working memory has a clear limit and we can use a “chunking” strategy to group items together allowing us to remember more. We discuss the extreme versions of this tactic described by expertise researcher K. Anders Ericsson and his...

Selection Bias can keep us hunting for what is most present on our mind, Waldo or the new Toyota we are planning to buy. Once we have committed to a decision we will see that specific brand everywhere. We are experiencing selection bias. Our brain is guiding us to what is most present on our minds. “The Invisible Gorilla” book by C. Chabris and D. Simons explores this famous experiment on how your mind actually works - our intuition can deceive us. ...

Be the courageous investor! Fear linked to 3 things: 1: To little information 2: Potential Threat 3: Helplessness Investing is linked to 2 things: 1: Fear 2: Greed The Salience Bias is linked to fear and uncertainty and your primal brain functions in your amygdala. There are 2 types of cognition 1)hot and 2)cold. Hot cognition is primal and linked to lymbic system, while your cold cognition is your rational view. Engage your investing process and training established during cold...

Rationalization and thesis drift is akin to wrestling with muddy pigs... it’s slippery and you will lose $$$. For investors ”thesis drift” is the tendency to rationalize bad news and come up with fresh reasons to still like a stock. Don’t accommodate your viewpoint for a group of facts that you were not previously aware of. Consistency Bias: don’t flip-flop! -Thank you to all who have bought our book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” - please write...

“Understanding Behavioral Bia$” follow along with book by Dr. Daniel Krawczyk and George Baxter, JD, CFA, (Chapter 8) while listening to this podcast. BUY on Amazon https://amzn.to/2XHtsOE (copy and paste). This podcast is fifth in the investment process series. It is the planning up from the matters. #1 tip to avoid pain is to use stop loss techniques! -BUY BOOK “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #mentalModels This book...

Recap of general market trends experienced in 2019 and interpret what they might mean for the economy in 2020. The expansion is the longest we have see, we are now beyond what it occurred from 1990-2000. Growth has been tepid so it might continue. We discuss economic indicators and historical trends from the past. BUY BOOK “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE | Behavioral finance advice and solutions. #MentalModels This book will help you overcome the biases that are...

How politics might influence the stock market in an election year! All of this while the standing president of the United States is under investigation for impeachment by the Senate. What are your predictions for the next president of the United States of America? Which stocks do you seeing impacted? @ 11:30 minutes George discusses his stock pick that could be influenced by the election year and why. Listen in. BUY BOOK “Understanding Behavioral BIA$” http://amzn.to/2XHtsOE |...

There won't be any regular episodes of Mental Models Podcast as we take a holiday break. Regular service will resume the first full week in January 2020. In the meantime, enjoy a holiday message and we have recapped a popular podcast on Behavioral Bia$. Join Dan and George at the Center for BrainHealth, Dallas, TX on 1/23/20 as they discuss “Money and your Brain: How Cognitive Biases Impact Investing” based on their book "Understanding Behavioral Bia$" link below. Thanks to everyone for...

“Understanding Behavioral Bia$” follow along with book by Dr. Daniel Krawczyk and George Baxter, JD, CFA, (Chapter 8) while listening to this podcast. BUY on Amazon https://amzn.to/2XHtsOE (copy and paste). Fourth in the series on the investment process - with top fund manager tips of the steps of analysis and execution. Biases to be aware of are recency bias also at minute 6:58 base rate neglect - which is also discussed in podcast #28 on Bill Gates brain. Min. 12:30 Group think biases...

Follow along with our book “Understanding Behavioral Bia$” by Dr. Daniel Krawczyk and George Baxter, JD, CFA, (Chapter 8) while listening to this podcast. BUY on Amazon https://amzn.to/2XHtsOE (copy and paste). Electronic version and paperback. The purpose of fundamental research during the investment process is to understand the cooperative position of the business/stock and devise the value of the business of its ability to generate free cash flow now or in to the future. Create a...

Book review and origin story of "Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making”. This book is a great tool to improve your investing skills. This is not a list of biases, but a guide that provides best practices to overcome biases when investing. Remedies to each bias are included. Learn about these biases and be able to capitalize off of the biases of other investors. Also, included is a summary of the investment process used in a successful hedge fund....

Idea vetting is the second step in the Investment Process - how to improve your process and what Biases are keeping your from your financial and investing goals. NEW BOOK "Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making" Available on Amazon NOW. Behavioral finance advice and solutions. More information at https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com

Investment Process new series (3 parts) from Mental Models Podcast. Talking you through each step of the investment process, starting with idea generation and associated biases. Watch out for episodes II and III of the Investment Process. Our upcoming book "Understanding Behavioral Bia$" will include this topic and more - November, 2019. Be sure to listen to Mental Models: Group Think Part 1 and Mental Models: Group Think Part 2 for biases when borrowing an idea and how to manage and or...

Biases can come about and trip up your investing decisions when your moving to fast. Incorporate speed bumps into your process, such as a check list. Have a coffee (or a scotch) and think through your process! There is an upside to biases - consider the slow mode advocated by Daniel Kahneman. Behavioral finance book "Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making" available November, 2019. Available on Amazon soon. More information at...

In the investing world some very distinctive feature are alerting you to a particular opportunity or something to be concerned about - Peaking your Curiosity. Base Rate Neglect Bias: Try to think in probabilities when ever possible, because there are so many statistics out there. Behavioral fimamce book "Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making" wiil launch on November 4, 2019, starting with the e-reader. The book is Available on Amazon. More information...

Passive index funds (ex. S & P 500 can be over performed if an edge can be found. Ways to avoid bias in active and passive management. Episode #29 is discussed in our new book "Understanding Behavioral Bia$: A Guide to Improving Financial Decision Making", specifically Chapter 8. Tentative release of the e-reader book is November 4, 2019. More information at https://www.mentalmodelspodcast.com This is a listener requested topic - Thank you Waco of Dallas for your question and support....

A discussion of Bill Gate's mental models as observed in the 3 part documentary series on Netflix: "Inside Bill's Brain: Decoding Bill Gates". Bill Gates mental process protects him from a variety of cognitive biases, such as base rate neglect. Other biases discussed in relation to Bill Gates mental process include survivor bias, Illusion of control, and overconfidence.

Artificial Intelligence Part 2 with Mike Hughes from OutSystems in Portugal discussing uses of AI in investing, business and court proceedings as the AI judge!

Artificial Intelligence expert Mike Hughes discusses a range of topics including machine learning and the future of computing. Part 1 of a 2 part series in AI and investing. Mike is an accomplished "IT Renaissance Man". Mike is part of the OutSystems success story, which helps clients to become their own success stories using PutSystems low-code platform. Sound has been updated for audience!

Artificial expert Mike Hughes discusses a range of topics including machine learning and the future of computing. Part 1 of a 2 Part interview. Mike is an accomplished "IT Renaissance Man". Mike is part of the OutSystems IT success story, which helps clients to become their own success stories using OutSystems low-code platform.

Consider the "bias luggage" that comes along with your frame and the frame of the market while investing and making investment decisions.